On an island only 90 miles off the US mainland, where the northern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean meet, war was brewing. The Soviet Union had begun secretly building missile bases in Fidel Castro’s Cuba. On 16 October, an American U-2 spy plane captured photographs of these missile sites, starting what would be known as the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Most of the histories that cover these thirteen days primarily focus on President John F. Kennedy and his administration to avoid the perceived nuclear war with the Soviet Union. But before I read The Fires of October: The Planned US Invasion of Cuba During the Missile Crisis of 1962 by Blaine L. Pardoe, I had no idea how close the United States was to invading Cuba. The threat was always implicit in history, but the actual details of the invasion force arrayed on the East Coast were quite eye-opening. And once more, the close calls and the down-to-the-minute decision could have sent history down a different and bloody path.
In this scenario, I’ll explore the events that led up to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the planned invasion of the island, the close calls that could’ve launched a war, and, if the war had begun, how that might’ve changed the timeline.
Turning Back to the Eisenhower Administration
After the Spanish-American War and Theodore Roosevelt Rough Riders charged up San Juan Hill, Cuba came under the protection of the United States. It also gained a valuable base at Guantanamo Bay that was vital for protecting the Panama Canal. Using a “hands-off” approach to Cuba, the United States took on this ‘good neighbor’ policy that went up in flames when Cuban President Fulgencio Batista was ousted from power.
Rising through the military, Batista was as corrupt as any dictator usually comes. He exploited the people of Cuba for his gain for well over a decade. Finally, a young law student named Fidel Castro led a rebellion against him and seized power. After a bloody guerilla war fought by Castro and his allies, including Che Guevera, against the larger forces of Batista, the former dictator withdrew. Fidel Castro became the Cuban Premier on 6 February 1959.
As Castro started to strip US companies of their assets and nationalize the sugar industry, he quickly became at odds with his neighbor to the north. As the tone of the exchanges grew harsher, Castro, his brother, and Che Gueverra finally convinced the Soviet Union to send a delegation to meet with them in February of 1960. The Soviet Union, frustrated by the Berlin Crisis and the US's Jupiter missile deployments close to their territory, saw it as an opportunity to forge a socialist ally right off their greatest adversary's shores while staving off Chinese interests in the island.
President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the famed Supreme Allied Commander during World War II, initiated two efforts: covert and military. The Eisenhower administration approved covert actions, but much of these would be left up to the Kennedy administration to launch, beginning with the infamous Bay of Pigs incident. Its failure drove a rift between Kennedy, the CIA, and the Pentagon that greatly clouded judgment in the months ahead.
Military Buildup and Planning
After the failed Bay of Pigs invasion, the Kennedy administration initiated a covert plan called the “Cuban Project,” also called Operation Mongoose. Highlighting the rift driven between Kennedy and the CIA, Kennedy put General Edward Lansdale in charge, a man the CIA viewed as a “loose cannon” and not their first choice. Special Group Augmented (SPA), an inter-agency taskforce overseen by JFK’s brother, Robert Kennedy, would lead the operation. These efforts were a mixed bag, but ultimately, it had not achieved its goal of a change in power by the time of the missile crisis.
Ironically, the Bay of Pigs was meant to prevent stronger ties between Cuba and the USSR. It, in fact, did the opposite, bringing them closer together as the USSR provided Cuba with arms and advisors as well as deploying Soviet military assets, which included missiles. In a few months, Cuba went from a weakly defended island to one that would become a bloodbath for any attacker.
Concurrently, US military planners were developing an operational framework to invade Cuba. There was a lot of chaos during this time as adjustments were being made in response to the Berlin Crisis, and the US was looking to Vietnam. Two plans were developed to invade Cuba: STRAC OP Plan 55-61 and OP Plan 316-61. Staging areas involved the Air Force bases, yet the planning was not coordinated with the Air Force’s planning and needs (just to highlight some of the dysfunction happening).
Eventually, OP Plan 316-61 would serve as the basis for the invasion of Cuba. It involved an airborne and amphibious assault on the island, with the US Marines landing at the resort beach of Tarará, east of Havana. The heavy armor and artillery would come ashore at Port Regalia, an objective of the 82nd Airborne after their initial assault. The idea for the plan was to cut off Havana and thereby capture Castro and his military command, though that was not explicitly outlined in the plan.
Once intelligence from Operation Mongoose showed just how much more fortified the island was becoming, OP Plan 316-61 (revised) was adjusted. The plan was amended to include the 101st Airborne, 2nd Marine Division, and 1st Armored Division (replacing an armored cavalry regiment). Objectives were also added, including the airport at Baracoa and the Port of Mariel. The updated plan was submitted a full year before the start of the Cuban Missile Crisis on 5 October 1961.
The Missile Crisis
The US was aware of the Soviet buildup in Cuba. Unfortunately, an inaccurate and optimistic report that the USSR would not put offensive weapons in Cuba lulled many US leaders into complacency. That all changed when U2 flyover missions discovered IL-28 bombers and missile sites. The sites that concerned the Kennedy administration the most were the SS-5 intermediate-ranged missiles, which could strike anywhere in the US except Seattle, Washington. In a matter of minutes, the USSR could launch a first strike and wipe out the US's capability to respond, destroying US missiles in their silos.
In addition to OP Plan 316-61, an extended air campaign that would precede an invasion was drawn up. Called OP 312-62 (Operation Rockpile), it was designed to achieve complete air superiority, hunt down missile sites, and attack other installations to ensure the success of the land invasion. As the clock ticked, the largest invasion force since World War II had been assembled on the US East Coast. Fortunately, back-channel talks avoided disaster. But there were many moments where World War III could’ve broken out.
What if the US had Invaded?
A US invasion would’ve been very bloody. Initial estimates of US casualties were estimated to be 18,484 across all branches of the military. They did not, however, factor in an attack on Guatananmo Bay and the casualties that would’ve incurred. And while the advantage of invading an island rather than a country with a long border (like Vietnam) is that the defenders are isolated from additional aid, guerilla fighting would’ve continued for some months. With that in mind, these casualty figures appear to be low.
With a massive commitment to forces in Cuba, the US probably would not have been able to increase its involvement in Vietnam without a rapid expansion of the armed forces via a draft. In our timeline, the US sent its best and most capable units to Vietnam. After they were bled dry, and the war was not going the US's way after the Tet Offensive, the US turned to the first military draft since World War II. Many of these units pre-draft would’ve been bled in the invasion of Cuba.
At the very least, the US would still have advisors on the ground, but it would’ve been challenging to justify a draft to get involved in another war. Granted, if a Cuban invasion led to a wider conflict with the USSR, that would’ve been required anyway. But then Vietnam would probably take a back seat to the actions that would most definitely have started to unravel in Europe, primarily around Berlin, which was already a hot tripwire for a wider conflict.
Sources:
Pardoe, Blaine L. Fires of October: The Planned US Invasion of Cuba During the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. England, Fonthill Media Limited, 2013.
Images: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CubaMap1b_w.jpg https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fulgencio_Batista,_1938.jpg
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