This article was written as an expansion of my response to the same question on alternatehistory.com. Read the original thread here.
The early days of World War I presented a unique opportunity for the German High Seas Fleet (HSF) to challenge the Royal Navy (RN). However, this prospect was fraught with economic and doctrinal considerations that ultimately made such a challenge difficult to sustain as the war progressed.
By 1916, the British blockade had severely strained German resources, making it nearly impossible for Germany to grow its navy and maintain its land forces. This article delves into the economic and doctrinal factors that influenced the naval arms race between Germany and Britain, exploring whether the HSF could have realistically challenged the RN in the early stages of the war.
Economic Considerations
Germany's economic position before the outbreak of World War I provided it with the resources necessary to expand its navy. The aftermath of the Franco-Prussian War saw Germany seizing significant resource-producing territories, which bolstered its industrial capabilities. Additionally, the hypothetical earlier completion of the Baghdad-Berlin railway could have further enhanced Germany's ability to import resources, potentially accelerating its fleet expansion. However, the British campaign in Mesopotamia would have eventually disrupted this supply line.
By 1914, Germany had already annexed crucial iron-producing regions from France, which, combined with efficient production centers, manpower, and transportation infrastructure, positioned Germany to ramp up its naval construction efforts. The German Naval Laws, passed in 1898, 1900, 1906, 1908, and 1912, were aimed explicitly at expanding the HSF. This aggressive naval expansion inevitably sparked a naval arms race with Britain, significantly increasing naval expenditures and shipbuilding activities on both sides.
Doctrinal Considerations
The British Royal Navy adhered to a doctrine that required maintaining a fleet larger than the combined strength of its two nearest competitors. Initially, these competitors were Russia and France. However, the Boer War and the passage of the German Naval Laws shifted British perceptions, with Germany emerging as a primary threat. Consequently, Britain adjusted its naval construction plans, ensuring its fleet's superiority by adding six battleships to its force.
For the HSF to challenge the RN effectively, Germany would have needed to undertake several strategic actions. Firstly, some naval building would have to occur in secret to avoid escalating the arms race prematurely. Secondly, Germany would need to accelerate the development and deployment of its U-boat fleet, which numbered only 20 in 1914. Lastly, Germany would benefit from evolving its naval doctrine, incorporating lessons from early skirmishes, and potentially considering sabotage efforts against British shipbuilding capabilities.
The Kaiser's Vision and Final Thoughts
Kaiser Wilhelm II's passion for boating and desire to see the HSF rival the RN added a personal dimension to Germany's naval ambitions. Interestingly, the Kaiser sought to use naval expansion not to challenge Britain directly but to present Germany as a formidable ally against France and Russia. This strategy backfired as Britain perceived the German naval build-up as a direct threat, intensifying naval competition.
For the HSF to have posed a serious challenge to the RN, Germany would have needed to strategically build up its naval forces before 1914, possibly peaking at the war's outset. This build-up required careful resource balancing, innovative naval doctrines, and possibly clandestine operations to undermine British naval superiority. However, the economic strain caused by the British blockade and the inherent challenges of outpacing British naval construction efforts made this an exceedingly difficult proposition.
This analysis draws from my research for my trilogy, The Kaiser's Machines, where I imagined alternative solutions to Germany's resource constraints during the war. The story envisions a different trajectory for the German war effort by repurposing naval assets for innovative land-based military technologies in the panzerwanderer, sturmspinnen, and eisenwürmer machines.
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