By the end of May 1942, Station HYPO, the US Navy’s signals monitoring and cryptographic intelligence unit based in Hawaii, had broken enough of the JN25b (Japanese Naval code), then called by the US Navy the "five numeral system" to determine their next target was Midway. The Japanese intended to lure the US fleet and its precious carriers into a battle and ambush them with a surface fleet, desperately seeking their decisive battle at sea they called Kantai Kessen (something they would chase for the remainder of the war rather than adapting to the new type of carrier warfare they had found themselves in).
However, thanks to HYPO, the US Navy knew they were coming after a ruse in which the US sent out a radio report that Midway’s water filtration system was malfunctioning (which it wasn’t). The Japanese picked this report up and reported that “AF’s” water filtration system was busted, revealing to the code breakers that“AF” in the Japanese messages meant Midway, confirming the target of their next operation.
Admiral Chester Nimitz, Commander and Chief of the US Pacific Fleet, sent the only three carriers he had left in the Pacific, the USS Yorktown, USS Hornet, and USS Enterprise (USS Saratoga was receiving repairs after being struck by a torpedo, USS Lexington was sunk at the Battle of Coral Sea, and USS Wasp had not yet been transferred to the Pacific). USS Ranger was deemed too slow for the fast carrier fleet in the Pacific and remained in the Atlantic. In support of the defense of Midway, SS-168, USS Nautilus, a Narwhal-class cruiser submarine built in the inter-war period, was sent to help the defense of Midway.
Consequential Role
While the USS Nautilus's initial impact in the battle of Midway would not fully be realized until well after the war, her role would prove pivotal in ensuring an American victory. On the morning of 4 June, while patrolling at the northern extremity of her patrol area, her crew spotted masts on the horizon.
The following events happened:
07:55—USS Nautilus spots masts on the horizon. Japanese planes sight her and begin strafing after she dives to 100 feet and continues observing for Japanese ships.
08:00—A formation of four Japanese ships, the battleship Kirishima, the cruiser Nagara, and two destroyers, are spotted. USS Nautilus is sighted again from the air and is staffed and bombed before two of the Japanese destroyers (misidentified as cruisers at the time) dropped nine depth charges. Sighting Kirishima, the USS Nautilus fires two torpedoes from her bow tubes (one misfired and one missed its target).
08:30—A Japanese destroyer immediately attacks USS Nautilus which dives to 150 feet, waiting out another depth charge attack.
08:46—Returning to periscope depth, the USS Nautilus is out of range of the cruiser and the two destroyers.
09:00—A Japanese aircraft carrier is sighted. USS Nautilus adjusts course and attacks. However, a Japanese destroyer counters.
09:18—The Japanese destroyer attacks the USS Nautilus with six depth charges.
09:55—Nautilus raises the periscope and finds that the escorting destroyer and the carrier it was protecting have disappeared.
Here’s where her role in the battle comes to fruition. Because she harried the Japanese fleet, pulling that escort destroyer out of position, she forced that ship to race back to its station with the main fleet. At this same moment, Enterprise’s VB-6, led by Wade McClusky, running desperately low on fuel, struggled to find the Japanese carriers. That was until, after conducting a box search, McClusky spots that lone Japanese destroyer (sources have said it was Arashi, but research since has put this into question, suggesting it might not have been Arashi but another Japanese destroyer), hightailing it to somewhere.
McClusky put two and two together and followed the destroyer, leading VB-6 to the Japanese carriers. That attack would result in VB-6 delivering death blows to the carriers Kaga and Akagi. Sōryū would take three hits from VB-3 from USS Yorktown, who happened to arrive over the Japanese carrier fleet around the same time (previous attacks from US torpedo planes had brought down the Japanese fighters protecting the carriers). In six minutes, three of the four Japanese carriers were ablaze, thanks in part to the USS Nautilus and that Japanese destroyer she forced out of position.
Impact of a Missed Opportunity
If you take the USS Nautilus out of the equation, VB-6 most likely would've not found the Japanese carrier fleet. Running low on fuel, they would have had to return to the carriers and mount another sortie if there was enough daylight to do so—and that’s if the Japanese did not find the American carriers first.
Many things could have befallen the USS Nautilus: one of the two strafing runs could have badly damaged or sunk her, or maybe one of the depth charges dropped on her that morning could have sealed her fate. Or, maybe she could have been out of position, whether by a delay stepping off that morning or simply in the incorrect place to spot the Japanese fleet. Historians don’t like dealing with hypotheticals for understandable reasons. They only want to concern themselves with the facts. But it’s hard to argue that without the USS Nautilus, the Battle of Midway would have ended in as resounding of a victory the US Navy had achieved by lots of skill and no shortage of luck.
Does it Change the War’s Outcome?
So, what would it have meant to the war’s outcome if the USS Nautilus had not been there to help swing the Battle of Midway decisively in the US’s favor? The ripple effects of the US losing the Battle of Midway would have been quite significant.
First, Admiral Ernest King, Commander in Chief, United States Fleet (COMINCH), would not have launched Operation Watchtower (the invasion of Guadalcanal), or perhaps not as soon as he did. Midway spurred the US forward by leveling the playing field regarding aircraft carriers. Combined with the Doolittle Raid, the Hit and Run carrier raids, and the Battle of Coral Sea, the victory at Midway set up the US to launch the Guadalcanal Campaign.
Many histories have falsely claimed that the Battle of Midway was the turning point in the Pacific. I vividly remember my history book in high school saying that. Historians have started recognizing that the Guadalcanal Campaign was the real turning point, starting two months after Midway on 7 August. It began a land, air, and sea sausage grinder, as historian Jon Parshall calls it, that would put the Japanese on the back foot and see the US take the initiative and crawl its way, island after island, back across the Pacific.
Second, Nimitz's job (and possibly King's as well) would have been on the chopping block if the US had walked away in defeat (Admiral King was already skeptical of his abilities, calling him a "fixer," and not in the good sense). Nimitz was crucial to the US achieving ultimate victory, championing the "island hopping" strategy and "calculated risk" modus operandi he and his subordinates employed for the remainder of the war in the Pacific. That doesn't mean whoever takes Nimitz's place changes strategy, but it would've impacted the decision-making at the top and which operations were, or not, carried out (Nimitz overruled desires to invade Truk, for instance).
Third, many of the American pilots who achieved success at Midway were sent home after the battle to train the next wave of pilots. If disaster struck and more of those men were lost in the battle, that would've diminished the quality of experienced pilots entering the war in 1943 and 1944. Perhaps a loss at Midway could've extended the war if it had delayed the US in reaching the Marianas. Winning these islands won the war, given it was there (Tinian) that the B-29s took off to drop the atomic bombs.
Lastly, a loss at Midway would not have meant the US would've sought peace, though it would've been a significant setback. The US would've continued to lean on the submarine fleet to harry Japanese shipping until the Saratoga was repaired, with Wasp and potentially Ranger (the latter currently in the Atlantic) holding the line until the USS Essex and the rest of her class rolled out of the shipyards starting in December of '42 and into '43.
In sum, if the US had lost Midway, it most likely would not have changed the outcome of the war. The fate of the Empire of Japan was sealed when they decided to bomb Pearl Harbor. The only way they could have won the war was not to fight it, to begin with.
To learn more about the Pacific War and explore such interesting history with true experts (from whom I received much of my insight for this article), I recommend you check out the podcast The Unauthorized History of the Pacific War.
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